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Skylar Thompson

Skylar Thompson Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 19

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

Skylar Thompson Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 189.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 189.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 189.5 @ +105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Miami Dolphins will be forced to use backup quarterback Skylar Thompson in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.

The Dolphins are a giant 13.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 64.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 128.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

The Miami Dolphins have run the least plays in football this year, averaging a measly 54.1 plays per game.

The Miami Dolphins offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass game metrics across the board.

The Buffalo Bills pass defense has displayed good efficiency this year, giving up 7.31 yards-per-target: the 7th-least in the NFL.

The Buffalo Bills defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.23 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in the NFL.

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