Simi Fehoko Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Simi Fehoko

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving TD

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 5:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Simi Fehoko Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1700/-20000).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys offense as the 4th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.45 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Dallas Cowboys offensive line profiles as the best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing game stats across the board.
The Washington Commanders defense has surrendered the 5th-most TDs through the air in the league to wide receivers: 1.20 per game since the start of last season.
The Washington Commanders linebackers rank as the 2nd-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
Simi Fehoko has been not been very involved his team's offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 0th percentile among WRs.
Simi Fehoko has earned a paltry 3.6% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: just 25th percentile among wideouts.
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Dallas Cowboys have utilized play action on a lowly 23.6% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.