Shi Smith Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Shi Smith

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receptions

New York Giants vs Carolina Panthers · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM EST

Analysis

Shi Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-142/+104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -129 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -142.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 10th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 63.6 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Giants defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.
The New York Giants pass defense has yielded the 8th-highest Completion% in the league (67.7%) versus wide receivers since the start of last season (67.7%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 11th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 57.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers O-line profiles as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
Shi Smith has been among the weakest WRs in the league since the start of last season, averaging just 1.1 receptions per game while grading out in the 19th percentile among wide receivers.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line has given their QB a mere 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
The New York Giants have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.