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Shi Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -115.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).The Panthers are a 6-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 9th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The weather report calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.Shi Smith has run fewer routes this season (77.1% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (24.7%).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.The Carolina Panthers have run the 3rd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 52.2 plays per game.Opposing offenses have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.Shi Smith has been among the weakest WRs in the game this year, averaging just 9.0 yards per game while checking in at the 10th percentile among wide receivers.Shi Smith has been among the most unreliable receivers in the league, completing just 41.0% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 13th percentile among wideouts
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