Shi Smith Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Shi Smith

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

New York Giants vs Carolina Panthers · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Shi Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-139/+102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 10th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 63.6 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Giants defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.
The New York Giants pass defense has yielded the 8th-highest Completion% in the league (67.7%) versus wide receivers since the start of last season (67.7%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 11th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 57.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Shi Smith has accrued a paltry 12.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 19th percentile among wideouts.
The Carolina Panthers O-line profiles as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
Shi Smith has been among the bottom WRs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 15.0 yards per game while grading out in the 22nd percentile among wide receivers.
The New York Giants pass defense has performed very well when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.11 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 10th-least in the league.