Shi Smith Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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NFL · Player Props

Shi Smith

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Shi Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-101/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -121 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will be forced to start backup QB Sam Darnold in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
Shi Smith has compiled quite a few more air yards this season (20.0 per game) than he did last season (12.0 per game).
Shi Smith's 21.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 10.5.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has conceded the 6th-most receiving yards per game in football (170.0) versus WRs this year.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 6.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 47.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-most sluggish pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.74 seconds per play accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 4th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 53.9 plays per game.
Shi Smith has been among the bottom pass-catching WRs this year, averaging just 18.0 yards per game while ranking in the 21st percentile among wideouts.