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Shi Smith

Shi Smith Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 15

Carolina Panthers vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Shi Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-101/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -121 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Carolina Panthers will be forced to start backup QB Sam Darnold in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.

Shi Smith has compiled quite a few more air yards this season (20.0 per game) than he did last season (12.0 per game).

Shi Smith's 21.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 10.5.

The Carolina Panthers offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing offense stats across the board.

The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has conceded the 6th-most receiving yards per game in football (170.0) versus WRs this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 6.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 47.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-most sluggish pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.74 seconds per play accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Carolina Panthers have run the 4th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 53.9 plays per game.

Shi Smith has been among the bottom pass-catching WRs this year, averaging just 18.0 yards per game while ranking in the 21st percentile among wideouts.

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