Shi Smith Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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NFL · Player Props

Shi Smith

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Denver Broncos · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Shi Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will be starting backup QB Sam Darnold in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: 8th-most in football.
Shi Smith has compiled significantly more air yards this season (21.0 per game) than he did last season (12.0 per game).
Shi Smith's 20.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 10.5.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all air attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 9th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 53.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 3rd-most sluggish paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 29.22 seconds per play.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Shi Smith has been among the bottom WRs in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 17.0 yards per game while ranking in the 23rd percentile among WRs.