Shi Smith Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Shi Smith

NFL · Player Props

Shi Smith

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 11, 2022 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Shi Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will be forced to utilize backup QB PJ Walker in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
Opposing teams have averaged 40.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
Shi Smith has put up far more air yards this year (21.0 per game) than he did last year (12.0 per game).
Shi Smith's 19.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 10.5.
The Carolina Panthers O-line grades out as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all air attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 7th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 53.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to run the 2nd-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 52.4 plays per game.
Shi Smith has been among the weakest WRs in the league this year, averaging a lowly 16.0 yards per game while ranking in the 22nd percentile among wideouts.

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