Sean Tucker Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Sean Tucker

NFL · Player Props

Sean Tucker

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rushing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 26, 2023 2:36 AM UTC

Analysis

Sean Tucker Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and their pass/run mix to lean 8.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 8th-most run-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 41.0% run rate.
The model projects this game to see the 5th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 63.7 plays per game.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line profiles as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
The Philadelphia Eagles defensive tackles grade out as the 3rd-best collection of DTs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.

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