Scotty Miller Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Scotty Miller

NFL · Player Props

Scotty Miller

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Scotty Miller Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-109/-121).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -121.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 67.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 9th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 61.4 plays per game.
Scott Miller has totaled many more air yards this season (53.0 per game) than he did last season (14.0 per game).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.9 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
THE BLITZ projects Scott Miller to be a much smaller piece of his offense's passing offense this week (4.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (10.0% in games he has played).
Scott Miller has been among the worst possession receivers in the NFL, hauling in just 48.4% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 2nd percentile among wideouts
Scott Miller has been among the least efficient receivers in the league, averaging just 4.07 yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 1st percentile among WRs

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