Saquon Barkley Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Saquon Barkley

NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · New York Giants

Rushing Yards

New York Giants vs New England Patriots · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 73.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 73.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 73.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Giants to run on 46.2% of their downs: the 7th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to have 131.6 total plays run: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week.
The model projects Saquon Barkley to earn 22.4 rush attempts in this contest, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Out of all running backs, Saquon Barkley grades out in the 97th percentile for rush attempts this year, comprising 66.5% of the workload in his team's ground game.
With a fantastic total of 80.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (96th percentile), Saquon Barkley rates as one of the best pure runners in the league this year.

Favors Under

The Giants are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
The New York Giants O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in football last year at blocking for the run game.
The Patriots defense has had the 4th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, giving up just 3.81 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
As it relates to the safeties' role in defending against the run, New England's unit has been one of the most skilled this year, profiling as the best in football.

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