Saquon Barkley Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · New York Giants

Rushing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New York Giants · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 4:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 77.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 77.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 77.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 6th-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 44.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 10th-fastest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 27.91 seconds per play.
The forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Saquon Barkley to accumulate 19.7 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile among RBs.
Saquon Barkley has been much more involved in his offense's run game this year (73.9% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (58.1%).

Favors Under

The Giants are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 3rd-least yards in the NFL (just 89 per game) against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year.
The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers rank as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in the league this year when it comes to run defense.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box against opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New York Giants have utilized motion in their offense on 26.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.