Saquon Barkley Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · New York Giants

Rushing TD

New York Giants vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+121/-164).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -137 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -164.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 6th-most run-oriented offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 46.6% red zone run rate.
The New York Giants have run the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 61.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Saquon Barkley to be a more important option in his offense's running game near the goal line this week (71.6% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (48.3% in games he has played).
Saquon Barkley has rushed for 0.60 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest marks in the NFL among running backs (96th percentile).
Opposing teams have run for the 7th-most TDs in the NFL (1.00 per game) against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.

Favors Under

The Giants are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Giants to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens defensive tackles grade out as the 2nd-best DT corps in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box vs. opponents on 18.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Giants have used motion in their offense on 26.6% of their plays since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.