Saquon Barkley Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Saquon Barkley

NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · New York Giants

Rushing TD

Green Bay Packers vs New York Giants · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+137/-190).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -173 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -190.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 6th-most run-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 45.8% red zone run rate.
The New York Giants have run the 9th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 63.5 plays per game.
Saquon Barkley has garnered 61.5% of his offense's red zone carries this year, ranking in the 89th percentile among RBs.
Saquon Barkley has run for 0.50 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest marks in football among running backs (91st percentile).
The Green Bay Packers linebackers grade out as the 5th-worst group of LBs in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The Giants are a big 9.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing squads have run for the 6th-least touchdowns in the NFL (0.50 per game) versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year.
The New York Giants have utilized motion in their offense on 26.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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