Saquon Barkley Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Saquon Barkley

NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · New York Giants

Rushing TD

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 27, 2022 12:15 AM UTC

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+115/-152).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -141 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -152.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 8th-most run-centric team in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 44.6% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run among all games this week at 129.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Saquon Barkley to be a much bigger part of his team's rushing attack near the end zone this week (66.5% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (48.4% in games he has played).
The Dallas Cowboys defensive tackles project as the worst collection of DTs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.
The New York Giants have gone no-huddle on 30.1% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-most in the league). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

The New York Giants have called the least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a mere 61.7 plays per game.
The New York Giants O-line profiles as the worst in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 6th-least TDs in the NFL (0.68 per game) vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season.
The New York Giants have used motion in their offense on 26.6% of their plays since the start of last season (least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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