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Saquon Barkley

Saquon Barkley Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 15

Washington Commanders vs New York Giants

Saquon Barkley Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+149/-208).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +151 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +149.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 4th-most run-centric team in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 50.1% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 27.50 seconds per play.

Saquon Barkley has been given 58.5% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, putting him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.

Saquon Barkley has run for 0.62 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest marks in the league among running backs (93rd percentile).

The New York Giants have gone no-huddle on 30.1% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-most in football). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Giants are a heavy 7.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.

The New York Giants O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league this year in run blocking.

Opposing teams have rushed for the 3rd-least TDs in football (0.54 per game) vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year.

The Washington Commanders safeties grade out as the 4th-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.

The New York Giants have used motion in their offense on 26.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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