Saquon Barkley Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Saquon Barkley

NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · New York Giants

Rushing TD

New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+139/-190).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -183 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -190.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 4th-most run-heavy offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 50.2% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Giants to call the 2nd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Giants have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.0 plays per game.
Saquon Barkley has received 57.1% of his team's red zone carries this year, ranking him in the 90th percentile among RBs.
Saquon Barkley has rushed for 0.67 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest figures in the NFL among RBs (93rd percentile).

Favors Under

The Giants are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
The New York Giants O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year at opening holes for runners.
The Philadelphia Eagles defensive ends rank as the best group of DEs in the league this year when it comes to run defense.
The New York Giants have used motion in their offense on 26.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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