Saquon Barkley Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Saquon Barkley

NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · New York Giants

Rushing TD

New York Giants vs Washington Commanders · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+131/-178).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +135 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 4th-most run-oriented team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 49.8% red zone run rate.
The New York Giants have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 60.1 plays per game.
Saquon Barkley has received 58.0% of his offense's red zone carries this year, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
Saquon Barkley has rushed for 0.64 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest figures in the league among running backs (93rd percentile).
The New York Giants have gone no-huddle on 30.1% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-most in football). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New York Giants O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.
Opposing teams have run for the 3rd-least TDs in football (0.50 per game) against the Washington Commanders defense this year.
The Washington Commanders safeties rank as the 4th-best unit in football this year in regard to stopping the run.
The New York Giants have used motion in their offense on 26.6% of their plays since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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