Saquon Barkley Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Saquon Barkley

NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · New York Giants

Rushing TD

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 24, 2022 9:21 PM EST

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+125/-170).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -159 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 4th-most run-centric team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 49.8% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New York Giants have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 61.6 plays per game.
Saquon Barkley has been given 58.3% of his offense's red zone rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 91st percentile among RBs.
Saquon Barkley has rushed for 0.60 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest marks in the league among running backs (91st percentile).

Favors Under

The Giants are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
The New York Giants O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year at run-game blocking.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 3rd-least TDs in the league (0.50 per game) vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year.
The New York Giants have incorporated motion in their offense on 26.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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