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Saquon Barkley

Saquon Barkley Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 1

Tennessee Titans vs New York Giants

Saquon Barkley Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+131/-178).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +158 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +131.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects Saquon Barkley to be a more integral piece of his offense's rushing attack near the end zone this week (66.4% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (44.4% in games he has played).

The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

The New York Giants have gone no-huddle on 30.1% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-most in the league). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Giants are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.

The Giants have been the 2nd-least run-heavy offense in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) since the start of last season with a 31.8% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Giants to call the 4th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The New York Giants have run the 10th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 60.9 plays per game.

The New York Giants O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.

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