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Saquon Barkley

Saquon Barkley Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles

Saquon Barkley Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-210/+155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -200 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +155.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 8th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Eagles this year (a staggering 59.6 per game on average).

The Philadelphia O-line grades out as the 10th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Saquon Barkley's 86.7% Adjusted Catch% this year represents a remarkable growth in his pass-catching ability over last year's 72.6% mark.

The Commanders safeties rank as the 5th-worst unit in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's line indicates a rushing game script for the Eagles, who are favored by 3.5 points.

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Eagles to pass on 46.7% of their chances: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to see only 129.3 offensive plays run: the 5th-fewest among all games this week.

Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Washington Commanders, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in the league (just 30.6 per game) this year.

Saquon Barkley's 19.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 27.4.

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