Saquon Barkley Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Saquon Barkley

NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · New York Giants

Receptions

Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Giants · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 1:06 AM EST

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+132/-170).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -174 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 6th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the New York Giants this year (a massive 62.2 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
In this game, Saquon Barkley is anticipated by the projections to finish in the 98th percentile among running backs with 6.0 targets.
Saquon Barkley has been a big part of his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 18.5% this year, which ranks in the 99th percentile among running backs.
Saquon Barkley ranks as one of the top pass-game RBs this year, averaging a stellar 3.9 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 96th percentile.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the New York Giants to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Giants to run the 4th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Las Vegas Raiders, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in football (just 34.4 per game) this year.
The Giants offensive line ranks as the worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Raiders defensive ends profile as the 2nd-best collection of DEs in the league this year when it comes to pass rush.

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