Saquon Barkley Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Saquon Barkley

NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · New York Giants

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs New York Giants · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +128 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Giants are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of a focus on passing than their normal game plan.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Giants are expected by our trusted projection set to call 66.7 total plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The leading projections forecast Saquon Barkley to accumulate 5.6 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 94th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Saquon Barkley's 26.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the league leaders: 99th percentile for RBs.

Favors Under

With a 58.6% rate of throwing the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 7th-least pass-centric offense in football has been the New York Giants.
Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Saints, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 34.4 per game) this year.
As it relates to protecting the passer (and the effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the New York Giants profiles as the worst in the league this year.
This year, the formidable Saints defense has conceded a paltry 71.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the 3rd-lowest rate in the league.
The Saints linebackers profile as the 8th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

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