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Saquon Barkley

Saquon Barkley Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Green Bay Packers vs New York Giants

 
 
 
Saquon Barkley Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+129/-174).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -166 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +129.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Giants are a big 9.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • The New York Giants have run the 9th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 63.5 plays per game.
  • Saquon Barkley has been more involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (75.0% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (51.4%).
  • THE BLITZ projects Saquon Barkley to accrue 6.4 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among running backs.
  • Saquon Barkley has been among the best pass-catching RBs this year, averaging a stellar 3.8 receptions per game while ranking in the 92nd percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Giants rank as the 5th-least pass-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 57.5% pass rate.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
  • The New York Giants offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

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