Saquon Barkley Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Saquon Barkley

NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · New York Giants

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs New York Giants · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+129/-174).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -166 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +129.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Giants are a big 9.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
The New York Giants have run the 9th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 63.5 plays per game.
Saquon Barkley has been more involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (75.0% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (51.4%).
THE BLITZ projects Saquon Barkley to accrue 6.4 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among running backs.
Saquon Barkley has been among the best pass-catching RBs this year, averaging a stellar 3.8 receptions per game while ranking in the 92nd percentile.

Favors Under

The Giants rank as the 5th-least pass-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 57.5% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
The New York Giants offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

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