Saquon Barkley Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Saquon Barkley

NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · New York Giants

Receptions

New York Giants vs Washington Commanders · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM EST

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+124/-158).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -148 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -158.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Giants have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 60.1 plays per game.
Saquon Barkley has been more involved as a potential target this year (65.1% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (51.4%).
THE BLITZ projects Saquon Barkley to accrue 4.5 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among RBs.
Saquon Barkley has been among the leading pass-catching running backs this year, averaging a terrific 3.2 receptions per game while ranking in the 91st percentile.
Saquon Barkley's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% jumping from 72.4% to 79.9%.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 6th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 52.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense this year: 4th-least in the league.
The New York Giants offensive line profiles as the 10th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Washington Commanders pass defense has surrendered the 4th-lowest Completion% in the league (73.2%) vs. RBs this year (73.2%).

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