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Saquon Barkley

Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 21

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders

Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast this game to have the smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 59.6 plays per game.

In this week's game, Saquon Barkley is anticipated by the predictive model to find himself in the 92nd percentile when it comes to RBs with 2.8 targets.

In regards to air yards, Saquon Barkley grades out in the lofty 98th percentile among running backs this year, totaling a remarkable 6.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more remarkable than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).

With an outstanding 16.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (75th percentile) this year, Saquon Barkley rates among the top RBs in the pass game in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 6-point advantage, the Eagles are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a reliance on running than their typical approach.

The projections expect the Eagles as the least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 45.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to test the pass defense of the Commanders, totaling the fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 25.9 per game) this year.

Saquon Barkley's 19.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 26.4.

This year, the stout Commanders defense has given up a feeble 18.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing RBs: the best in the NFL.

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