Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 2, 2024

Updated Sep 17, 2024 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the projection model to see 137.2 total plays called: the highest number out of all the games this week.
The 6th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Philadelphia Eagles since the start of last season (a staggering 60.4 per game on average).
Our trusted projections expect Saquon Barkley to earn 4.5 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.
Saquon Barkley has compiled a staggering 10.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 100th percentile among RBs. (That may not seem very overwhelming, but most RBs average negative air yards considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage).
Saquon Barkley places in the 98th percentile when it comes to running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive volume) with a monstrous 26.8 figure since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to pass on 54.5% of their chances: the lowest rate on the slate this week.
Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Atlanta Falcons, totaling the fewest attempts in the league (just 32.3 per game) since the start of last season.
Saquon Barkley profiles as one of the most hard-handed receivers in football when it comes to running backs, hauling in a mere 72.6% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, grading out in the 16th percentile.
Saquon Barkley has been one of the least efficient receivers in the NFL when it comes to RBs, averaging just 4.70 adjusted yards-per-target last year while checking in at the 18th percentile.