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Saquon Barkley

Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 19

Philadelphia Eagles vs Green Bay Packers

Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-133/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -133.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Eagles will be rolling out backup QB Tanner McKee this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.

Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are forecasted by the model to run 67.7 plays on offense in this contest: the highest number among all teams this week.

The Eagles have called the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a massive 60.1 plays per game.

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while rush volume may slide.

Saquon Barkley has accrued a staggering 7.0 air yards per game this year: 98th percentile among running backs. (That might not seem like a lot, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a running game script.

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Eagles to pass on 46.6% of their downs: the lowest rate on the slate this week.

Saquon Barkley's 18.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 26.4.

This year, the daunting Packers pass defense has conceded the 4th-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing RBs: a mere 7.0 YAC.

The Green Bay Packers safeties project as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

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