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Saquon Barkley

Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 11

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders

Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-123/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -123.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may suffer.

When talking about air yards, Saquon Barkley grades out in the lofty 99th percentile among RBs this year, accumulating an impressive 8.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more impressive than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).

With an excellent 19.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (78th percentile) this year, Saquon Barkley rates among the leading pass-game RBs in the NFL.

Saquon Barkley's receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% increasing from 72.6% to 88.2%.

Saquon Barkley's pass-game effectiveness has gotten better this year, totaling 7.27 adjusted yards-per-target compared to just 4.70 mark last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's line suggests a rushing game script for the Eagles, who are favored by 4 points.

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Eagles to pass on 51.0% of their downs: the 2nd-lowest clip on the slate this week.

The leading projections forecast the Eagles offense to be the 7th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.04 seconds per play.

Opposing teams have averaged 29.2 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense this year: 4th-fewest in the league.

Saquon Barkley's 19.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 27.4.

More Saquon Barkley Player Props

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