Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · New York Giants

Receiving Yards

New York Giants vs New York Jets · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 30, 2023 12:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Giants will be rolling with backup QB Tyrod Taylor in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
At a -3-point disadvantage, the Giants are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of a reliance on passing than their normal approach.
The 9th-most plays in the league have been called by the Giants this year (a monstrous 61.4 per game on average).
This week, Saquon Barkley is expected by the projections to rank in the 96th percentile among running backs with 4.9 targets.
With a remarkable 16.8% Target% (99th percentile) this year, Saquon Barkley ranks among the pass-game running backs with the most usage in football.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the New York Giants to be the 4th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 52.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Based on the game dynamics and traits of each team, our trusted projections expect this game (with an average of 26.80 seconds per play) will have the 11th-slowest pace out of all the games this week.
In regards to pass-blocking (and the influence it has on all pass attack stats), the offensive line of the New York Giants ranks as the worst in the league this year.
Saquon Barkley is positioned as one of the least efficient pass-catchers in football when it comes to running backs, averaging just 4.41 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 25th percentile.
Saquon Barkley's skills in grinding out extra yardage have worsened this season, notching a mere 5.38 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 7.84 rate last season.