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Saquon Barkley

Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants

Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This week's line suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Giants, who are big -14-point underdogs.

Our trusted projections expect the Giants as the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 41.1 pass attempts per game against the Eagles defense this year: most in the NFL.

The predictive model expects Saquon Barkley to earn 4.6 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among running backs.

In regards to air yards, Saquon Barkley ranks in the towering 96th percentile among RBs this year, accumulating a whopping 4.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more impressive than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Giants to call the 6th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

Saquon Barkley has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (56.5% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (67.9%).

The New York offensive line profiles as the worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.

Saquon Barkley rates as one of the most hard-handed receivers in football among running backs, catching a mere 77.7% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 24th percentile.

Saquon Barkley's skills in picking up extra yardage have tailed off this season, averaging a measly 4.91 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 7.84 rate last season.

More Saquon Barkley Player Props

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