Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · New York Giants

Receiving Yards

New York Giants vs Green Bay Packers · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 12, 2023 1:01 AM EST

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-134/+102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -134.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is implied by the Giants being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
In this week's contest, Saquon Barkley is expected by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 95th percentile when it comes to RBs with 5.3 targets.
Saquon Barkley has accrued a monstrous 4.0 air yards per game this year: 96th percentile when it comes to RBs. (That may not sound too impressive, but most RBs have negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Saquon Barkley slots into the 99th percentile among running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive volume) with a monstrous 26.6 figure this year.
With a stellar 20.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (84th percentile) this year, Saquon Barkley ranks among the best RB receiving threats in the NFL.

Favors Under

The projections expect the New York Giants to be the least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 55.0% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.8 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game against the Packers defense this year: fewest in football.
When talking about pocket protection (and the significance it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the New York Giants grades out as the worst in the league this year.
Saquon Barkley rates as one of the most hard-handed receivers in football among running backs, catching just 76.2% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 22nd percentile.