Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Saquon Barkley

NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · New York Giants

Receiving Yards

New York Giants vs New England Patriots · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-133/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ -133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Giants are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to have 131.6 total plays run: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week.
The Patriots defense has been something of pass funnel this year, enticing opposing offenses to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (37.9 per game) this year.
The model projects Saquon Barkley to total 5.6 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among running backs.
In regards to air yards, Saquon Barkley ranks in the measly 10th percentile among RBs this year, totaling just -3.0 per game.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the New York Giants as the 7th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 53.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the influence it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the New York Giants grades out as the worst in the NFL this year.
Saquon Barkley's ability to generate extra yardage has declined this year, compiling just 4.89 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 7.84 figure last year.
This year, the fierce New England Patriots pass defense has given up the 10th-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing RBs: a feeble 6.7 YAC.

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