Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · New York Giants

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New York Giants · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 4:56 PM EST

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 26.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Giants are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 10th-fastest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 27.91 seconds per play.
Saquon Barkley has been more involved as a potential target this season (71.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (51.4%).
THE BLITZ projects Saquon Barkley to accumulate 5.3 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile among running backs.
Saquon Barkley has put up a colossal 4.0 air yards per game this year: 82nd percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 4th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
The New York Giants O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
The New York Giants O-line has afforded their QB just 2.41 seconds before getting pressured (8th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.