Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · New York Giants

Receiving Yards

New York Giants vs Chicago Bears · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-109/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 27.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 7th-quickest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 27.52 seconds per snap.
Saquon Barkley has been used more as a potential pass-catcher this year (75.4% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (51.4%).
THE BLITZ projects Saquon Barkley to accrue 6.2 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
Saquon Barkley has put up a whopping 2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 80th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Saquon Barkley has been among the best pass-catching running backs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 20.0 yards per game while grading out in the 82nd percentile.

Favors Under

The Giants are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 53.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 27.7 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in football.
The New York Giants O-line profiles as the worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.