Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · New York Giants

Receiving Yards

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 27, 2022 12:20 AM UTC

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-155/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run among all games this week at 129.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 5th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Saquon Barkley to notch 5.6 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile among RBs.
Saquon Barkley has notched a colossal 3.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 86th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Saquon Barkley's 22.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 97th percentile for running backs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 56.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New York Giants have called the least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a mere 61.7 plays per game.
The New York Giants O-line grades out as the worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has surrendered the 4th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 28.0) versus running backs since the start of last season.
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has allowed the 9th-lowest Completion% in the league (77.6%) to RBs since the start of last season (77.6%).