Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Saquon Barkley

NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · New York Giants

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs New York Giants · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 6:06 PM EST

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Giants are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Giants to call the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
Saquon Barkley has gone out for more passes this year (65.0% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (51.3%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 6th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 58.0% pass rate.
Saquon Barkley has accrued a paltry -2.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 12th percentile among RBs.
The New York Giants offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
Saquon Barkley has been among the least effective receivers in the NFL among running backs, averaging just 4.61 yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 13th percentile.
The New York Giants offensive line has given their quarterback a measly 2.41 seconds before getting pressured (8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass game stats across the board.

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