Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Saquon Barkley

NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · New York Giants

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 24, 2022 8:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Giants are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New York Giants have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 61.6 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Saquon Barkley has been more involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (66.9% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (51.4%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 6th-least pass-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 57.2% pass rate.
The New York Giants offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Saquon Barkley has been among the least efficient receivers in the league among running backs, averaging a lowly 4.84 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 22nd percentile.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has surrendered the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in football (just 24.0) to running backs this year.
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers rank as the 4th-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

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