Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · New York Giants

Receiving Yards

New York Giants vs Detroit Lions · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-103/-128).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -128.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New York Giants have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.1 plays per game.
Saquon Barkley has been used more as a potential pass-catcher this year (67.3% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (51.4%).
THE BLITZ projects Saquon Barkley to notch 4.2 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 89th percentile among RBs.
Saquon Barkley has accrued a colossal 3.0 air yards per game this year: 84th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

The Giants are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 46.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
The New York Giants offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Saquon Barkley has been among the least effective receivers in the NFL among RBs, averaging just 4.83 yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 19th percentile.