Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · New York Giants

Receiving Yards

New York Giants vs Houston Texans · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 5:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-100/-132).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -132.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 2nd-fastest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.20 seconds per play.
Saquon Barkley has been more involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (68.3% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (51.4%).
THE BLITZ projects Saquon Barkley to garner 5.1 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 95th percentile among running backs.
Saquon Barkley has compiled a monstrous 3.0 air yards per game this year: 79th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Saquon Barkley has been among the leading RB receiving threats this year, averaging a stellar 21.0 yards per game while ranking in the 86th percentile.

Favors Under

The Giants are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 49.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense this year: 8th-least in football.
The New York Giants O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Saquon Barkley has been among the least effective receivers in the NFL among RBs, averaging just 4.76 yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 24th percentile.