Saquon Barkley Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · New York Giants

Receiving TD

Seattle Seahawks vs New York Giants · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+436/-993).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +440 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +436.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Giants are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Giants to call the 8th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Giants have called the 9th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 61.3 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Saquon Barkley to be much more involved in his offense's passing offense near the end zone this week (13.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (4.5% in games he has played).
Saquon Barkley has notched a whopping 3.0 air yards per game this year: 81st percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

Opposing teams have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 9th-least in football.
The New York Giants offensive line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Saquon Barkley grades out in the 1st percentile among RBs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a measly 0.00 per game.
The New York Giants offensive line has given their QB a measly 2.41 seconds before getting pressured (8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The New York Giants have used motion in their offense on 26.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.