Saquon Barkley Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · New York Giants

Receiving TD

New York Giants vs Carolina Panthers · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+390/-816).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -791 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -816.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Saquon Barkley to be a more integral piece of his team's pass attack near the end zone this week (15.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (9.3% in games he has played).
Saquon Barkley has accrued a colossal 2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 81st percentile among RBs.
Saquon Barkley's 22.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the league: 96th percentile for running backs.
Saquon Barkley's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% rising from 72.3% to 87.6%.

Favors Under

The New York Giants have run the 8th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 60.8 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game versus the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in the league.
The New York Giants O-line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has conceded the 8th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (77.3%) versus running backs since the start of last season (77.3%).
The Carolina Panthers defensive tackles rank as the 7th-best collection of DTs in the league since the start of last season when it comes to rushing the passer.