Saquon Barkley Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Saquon Barkley

NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · New York Giants

Receiving TD

Tennessee Titans vs New York Giants · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+434/-989).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Giants are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: 5th-most in the NFL.
Saquon Barkley has totaled a whopping 2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 78th percentile among running backs.
Saquon Barkley's 21.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the league leaders: 92nd percentile for running backs.
Saquon Barkley ranks in the 87th percentile among running backs as it relates to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 0.15 per game.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Giants to call the 4th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Giants have run the 10th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 60.9 plays per game.
The New York Giants offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Saquon Barkley has been among the most hard-handed receivers in football among running backs, catching a measly 72.3% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 16th percentile.
The Tennessee Titans defense has given up the least TDs through the air in football to running backs: 0.06 per game since the start of last season.

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