Saquon Barkley Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Saquon Barkley

NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · New York Giants

Carries

Green Bay Packers vs New York Giants · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-122/-108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Giants have been the 5th-most run-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) this year with a 42.5% run rate.
The New York Giants have run the 9th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 63.5 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Saquon Barkley to total 18.6 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among running backs.
Saquon Barkley has been a much bigger part of his offense's rushing attack this season (76.4% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (58.1%).

Favors Under

The Giants are a big 9.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

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