Saquon Barkley Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Saquon Barkley

NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · New York Giants

Carries

Minnesota Vikings vs New York Giants · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 5:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-107/-122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -107.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 7th-most run-centric offense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 42.0% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Giants to call the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Saquon Barkley to total 17.8 rush attempts this week, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.
Saquon Barkley has been a more important option in his offense's rushing attack this year (71.9% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (58.1%).
The New York Giants have gone no-huddle on 30.1% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-most in the league). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

The Giants are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The New York Giants offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in the league this year at opening holes for runners.
The Minnesota Vikings defensive tackles profile as the best unit in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

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