Sammy Watkins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Sammy Watkins

NFL · Player Props

Sammy Watkins

WR · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Sammy Watkins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+108/-138).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -138.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 64.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.2 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Sammy Watkins to accrue 6.4 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 77th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The Green Bay Packers offensive line has allowed their QB a mere 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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