Sammy Watkins Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Sammy Watkins

NFL · Player Props

Sammy Watkins

WR · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Sammy Watkins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (+115/-152).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 10th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 62.8% pass rate.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Sammy Watkins has been used less as a potential target this season (64.2% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (48.7%).
Sammy Watkins's receiving reliability have gotten better this year, with his Completion% jumping from 59.8% to 73.5%.
Sammy Watkins's pass-catching efficiency has gotten better this year, compiling 11.24 yards-per-target vs a mere 8.47 mark last year.

Favors Under

The Packers are a heavy 10.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Sammy Watkins has put up far fewer air yards this year (38.0 per game) than he did last year (44.0 per game).
The Green Bay Packers offensive line has given their QB a measly 2.44 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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