Sammy Watkins Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Sammy Watkins

NFL · Player Props

Sammy Watkins

WR · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 18, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Sammy Watkins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing teams have averaged 43.8 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the NFL.
Sammy Watkins has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (64.9% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (48.7%).
The Green Bay Packers offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Sammy Watkins's ball-catching skills have gotten better this year, with his Completion% increasing from 59.8% to 65.6%.
Sammy Watkins's receiving efficiency has gotten a boost this season, totaling 10.02 yards-per-target compared to a measly 8.47 figure last season.

Favors Under

The Packers are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Sammy Watkins has posted significantly fewer air yards this year (38.0 per game) than he did last year (44.0 per game).
The Tennessee Titans safeties rank as the 3rd-best unit in football this year in covering receivers.
The Green Bay Packers O-line has allowed their quarterback a mere 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.

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