Samaje Perine Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Samaje Perine

NFL · Player Props

Samaje Perine

RB · Denver Broncos

Rushing Yards

Houston Texans vs Denver Broncos · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 3:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Samaje Perine Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (+110/-140).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Broncos offense to skew 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays.
At the moment, the 7th-most run-focused offense in the league (41.7% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Denver Broncos.
Samaje Perine's rushing effectiveness (4.85 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (86th percentile when it comes to running backs).
The Houston Texans defensive tackles profile as the worst unit in the league this year in regard to defending the run.

Favors Under

The Broncos are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
The model projects the Broncos to run the 6th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.9 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.2 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Samaje Perine has been a much smaller piece of his team's ground game this season (12.3% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (24.5%).

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