Samaje Perine Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Samaje Perine

NFL · Player Props

Samaje Perine

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Rushing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 3, 2023 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Samaje Perine Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-115/-113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.9 plays per game.
Samaje Perine has been a much bigger part of his offense's running game this year (26.2% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (12.4%).
Samaje Perine has run for significantly more yards per game (26.0) this season than he did last season (12.0).
The Buffalo Bills safeties profile as the 31st-worst group of safeties in the league this year with their run defense.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 33.0% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 4th-least yards in football (just 102 per game) against the Buffalo Bills defense this year.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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